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Shipping through the Panama Canal is affected by the water level of nearby Lake Gutan
drought has already begun to exceed anything that we have measured here in over a century.
The first sign that El Niño is developing is a weakening, or even reversal, of the tropical Pacific trade winds. Without the winds, warm water in the east begins to flow back and eventually occupies much of the equatorial waters down to about 300 meters from the coast of South America to the middle of the Pacific. That shift sets off a chain of changes in weather patterns around the world. What can El Niño do to – or for – you? According to predictions from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), as well as many other national and international climate authorities, the earth and its inhabitants can expect one of the warmest, if not the hottest, years on record both in 2026 and 2027. Global ocean temperatures are already at record highs, raising concerns about the compounding effects of El Niño and global warming effects on corals and other sea life, particularly along the west coast of the Americas and Australia. Some of the wettest regions on the planet, including southeast Asia, Australia, northern South America, Central America and the Caribbean,
are expected to experience severe droughts this year. Places that are normally extremely dry, such as the coasts of Ecuador and Peru, may face strong storms with the potential for life-threatening floods. Why it’s hard to forecast El Niño and its effects The El Niño-Southern Oscillation – the climate system that swings between warm El Niño and cooler La Niña conditions every few years – like many things in nature, is extremely complex. Scientists have been studying it for generations and many things about it are still not fully understood. Forecasters such as NOAA use many different computer models to help predict how complex systems like this will unfold. Each model differs in the details of how they make their predictions and the average of the models forms the basis of the predictions presented to the public. It is important to understand that
What is El Niño? El Niño is a naturally occurring
phenomenon that can affect weather around the world. Its origin lies in the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean. Normally, trade winds along the equator blow from east to west in this region, pushing warm surface water toward the islands of southeast Asia, where it accumulates.
these are best estimates based on the available knowledge and understanding.
Media storm: El Niño has made headlines across the globe
Every El Niño is different. They can vary significantly between one event and another both in timing and impact. Each El Niño seems to include some
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