OP–ED
Recent changes in the
E l Niño is here, and forecasters warn that it’s likely to be bigger and stronger in 2026-27 than any El Niño event recorded in at least 150 years. During strong El Niños, global air and ocean temperatures spike and precipitation patterns shift dramatically – flooding rains deluge places that are normally dry and drought strikes some of the wettest locations on earth. With this El Niño arriving on top of already high global ocean and air temperatures, it carries the potential for extraordinary impacts to millions of lives throughout the world. Globally, August 2026 was the hottest month on record, according to data from Europe’s Copernicus climate service. Those effects are already showing up in Central and South America. Fishing crews in Ecuador are catching fewer tuna and traveling farther from shore to find them as fish migrate to cooler water. Coral reefs are under alert for severe risk of bleaching in many areas. In Panama, where I live, seabirds common to Ecuador and Peru known as blue-footed boobies began showing up in large numbers in Panama earlier than usual as the sardines and anchovies they
feeding patterns of blue-footed boobies
indicates Pacific Ocean heating.
eat moved northward to escape the El Niño ocean heat. Farmers in some regions of Panama have been unable to plant their crops. And many people here are worried about access to drinking water in the coming dry season, normally January to April but predicted to arrive at least a month earlier than usual. The global economy is also beginning to see far-reaching effects. Worsening drought is reducing the amount of water
needed to operate the Panama Canal, resulting in fewer ships with less cargo able to pass through in a day. That leads to higher transit costs for shippers of all kinds of products and slower deliveries. I am a biologist who has been monitoring the weather in Panama and surrounding regions for the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute for almost 40 years. That includes major climatic events such as El Niño. What I am seeing in Panama in 2026 in terms of heat and
Probability of a very strong El Niño in 2026-27 (percent)
NOAA’s September 10 El Niño forecast suggested a more than 90 percent likelihood that a very strong El Niño will develop by the end of 2026.
Percent
100
80
60
Steven Paton
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Steven Paton is a Research Biologist at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Smithsonian Institution. He holds degrees in zoology from the University of British Columbia (1983-1986) and in biology from McMaster University (1979-1983). His research includes studies on coastal biodiversity resilience and he has published widely.
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Aug-Oct Sep-Nov Oct-Dec
Nov-Jan
Dec-Feb
Jan-Mar
Feb-Apr
Mar-May
Apr-Jun
Time frame (August 2026-June 2027)
Strong
Moderate
Weak
Neutral
La Niña
Very strong
Forecasts project conditions over three-month periods. A strong El Niño is defined as a central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature of 1.5°C or more above average; a very strong El Niño is 2°C or more above average
Chart: The Conversation, CC-BY-ND Source: Panama Canal Authority
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