OP–ED
Lake Gutan, Panama: The effect of El Niño on water levels
Note: The canal underwent a major expansion in 2014, but water efficiency was also improved at its locks
Feet
90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72
2018–19 El Niño
1997–98 El Niño
2015–16 El Niño
2023–24 El Niño
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Chart: The Conversation, CC-BY-ND Source: Panama Canal Authority
unexpected results, especially regarding where droughts and floods appear. Some effects, such as drought in Central America and global air temperature spikes, are almost guaranteed. Others, such as heavy rainfall on the U.S. West Coast, are more variable. For example, the 2015-16 El Niño, one of the strongest on record, brought little relief to drought-stricken California. So, do not assume that what usually happens at your location during El Niño will happen this time. The super, mega El Niño of 2026-27 To gauge the intensity of an El Niño event scientists look at the temperatures in the middle of the equatorial Pacific in a region known as Niño 3.4. The intensity of an El Niño event is defined as the current or expected sea surface temperatures in that region minus the long-term average. A very strong event is considered to have a value of at least 2° Celsius – meaning it’s 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the average. In the past century, two El Niño events stand out – 1982-83 and 2015-16 – each with values close to 2.6° C (4.7° F). Predictions for the current event include from around 3° C to almost 4° C (5.4° – 7.2° F), potentially placing it well above anything that has occurred in at least 150 years and likely much longer. This matters to the global economy The influences of El Niño should raise global alarms for economies as well.
even during the rainy season when they should be going up. Once lake levels are no longer safe for the largest ships to pass, the Panama Canal Authority, the agency in charge of the canal, begins to restrict their maximum draft, meaning how deep into the water the ships sink when loaded. Even before then, it starts to reduce the number of ships that can pass each day in order to save water. Previous major El Niños have resulted in significant interruptions to the canal’s operations. This year is no exception. The Panama Canal Authority has already begun to restrict the number and size of ships allowed to pass in 2026. As El Niño intensifies, these limits will only become tighter. As what could be the strongest El Niño on record develops, families, communities and economies need to prepare. Local areas may see more intense effects than expected or they may see different effects than in past El Niños. The best preparation is to be ready for the worst and pay attention to the forecasts.
“Each El Niño seems to include some unexpected results, especially regarding where droughts and floods appear.”
Steven Paton
The Panama Canal is one of the world’s most important shipping choke points, particularly for ships traveling to and from the U.S. It relies exclusively on fresh water from rivers pouring into Lake Gatun to operate its system of locks, which act like elevators – filling with water to lift each ship 85 feet (26 meters) from sea level to the lake and then back down to sea level on the other side. The canal saves days of travel time and hundreds of thousands of dollars in fuel costs as ships travel between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Panama is normally so rainy that the locks can function at full capacity throughout the year. During droughts, however, the lake levels can begin to fall
• This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article:
https://theconversation.com/2026s- el-nino-is-shaping-up-to-be-a-doozy- its-already-affecting-global-shipping- fish-behavior-and-heat-291490?utm_ medium=article_native_share&utm_ source=theconversation.com
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