THE FERTILIZER CRUNCH
DAP and MAP exports October 2019 – April 2025
China
Metric tons (millions)
Russia
7
2
6
1.9
2.3
5
2.1
4.8
2.1
2.1
4
4
3
3.4
3.1
2.7
2.6
2
1
0
2019 – 2020
2020 – 2021
2021 – 2022 2022 – 2023 2023 – 2024 2024 – 2025
Time frame (October-April)
Source: TDM
Restrictions on fertilizer exports across different regions
Restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have effectively choked off supplies from the Persian Gulf, the world’s largest fertilizer producing and (until recently) exporting region. Here again we focus on urea and DAP, two of the most widely traded fertilizer ingredients. The Gulf countries account for roughly 40 percent of global urea exports, with Iran the largest exporter (despite incomplete official reporting due to sanctions), followed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, contributing approximately
begin in 2027. As discussed in Arita, Wang, and colleagues at North Dakota State University (NDSU), sulfur, a critical input to
phosphate production globally, is also heavily concentrated in Gulf production. The disruption therefore propagates through Moroccan and Chinese phosphate operations even though those producers are geographically distant from the strait. Other key fertilizer exporters, meanwhile, maintain export restrictions. As we saw in the grain and vegetable oil markets following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 or with the rice market in 2023, countries often resort to such restrictions to ensure sufficient supplies for domestic consumers and further shorting global markets.
Photo: Perfectti – Adobe Stock
Gulf countries account for roughly 40 percent of global
21 MMT of annual export capacity collectively. The Gulf accounts for
urea exports and 23 percent of DAP exports.
23 percent of global DAP exports, with Saudi Arabia, led by Maaden, the largest producer, accounting for approximately 6 MMT of phosphate fertilizer production capacity. A planned expansion to 9 MMT under the Phosphate 3 project is not yet operational, with production expected to
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