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if that decline is more than offset by productivity gains (i.e., gains in GDP per capita). Such gains are questionable because productivity growth has declined or stayed constant over time. Thus, ongoing economic growth and a continual rise in living standards will be a challenge for declining populations. Countries need to maintain productivity growth by forward-looking attention to focused and nimble industrial policy and investment, continual evolution of education and training, the development of human capital and adjusting the labor force age composition to dampen the effects of population cycles. Migration In many Western countries, migration is intensely discussed, exacerbated by recent (mostly conflict- driven) migrations from Africa to Europe. Rich countries have for decades faced incongruent challenges: the attraction of skilled migrants in response to crises of aging, admission of political refugees and populist movements against immigrants and immigration. Within countries, migration can be driven by many factors. Urbanization or economic change can generate movements in response to regional differences in factors such as housing stock and costs, income or employment opportunities. These movements are sometimes permanent as in the case of the increasing urbanization of the world. But they can be temporary as in China where millions of laborers move between regions annually. Outlook In the coming decades, we assume that developing countries will see continued education expansion, especially of females, along with continued economic development. For that assumption to hold, a critical need is the spread of stable and responsible governance around the world. Another is that rich countries will have to bend the trajectories of change — technological, economic, environmental — in ways that promote sustainable development and simultaneously protect the environment. These goals are complementary and require widespread and renewable production, storage, transfer and use of energy, water, waste, knowledge and information. We expect an accelerating decline to below replacement fertility around the world so that global population should peak shortly after mid-century. These declines will mean that individual countries or regions will, at different times, face boom and bust cycles and a rapidly changing labor force. These changes will require policies that moderate inequality and manage population movements within countries or regions. “Sustained below-replacement fertility is likely to be widespread in coming decades and many countries will have to address the social and economic consequences of falling populations.”
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