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The future of populations is told by pyramids, such as those shown below (2010, females in red, males in blue). China’s pyramid (a) is narrow at the youngest ages (one-child policy) and shows multiple bulges. India’s pyramid (b) is more typical, with fertility falling slowly at first but with increasing speed. Japan’s pyramid (c) is markedly skinny towards its base, reflecting persistent decline in birth rates. For comparison, the US pyramid (d) has a roughly even but narrow base with the well-known Baby Boom at ages 45–64 years.
100 80 60 40 20
a
b
c
d
0
60 30 0 30 60
60 30 0 30 60
60 30 0 30 60
60 30 0 30 60
From trends to consequences Can we base the future on trends revealed by current population pyramids? For the next 20 years, we can, because over that time every person who will enter the labor force has already been born. Fertility and mortality decline mean that the median age of the typical person increases. In 2018, median ages were 37 years in China and the USA, 27 years in India and 46 years in Japan. By 2030, rapid aging will push the median age in China to 43 years, in the USA to 40 years, in Japan to 52 years and in India to 32 years! These changes have consequences for markets and politics, both age-sensitive. Inequalities in death and income Economic growth measured by increasing GDP per capita is certainly good for human welfare as judged by reduced poverty and longer lives. But economic inequality has increased recently, even as average wealth has grown. This contradicts what the economist Simon Kuznets predicted in the 1950s — that inequality would first rise during early industrialisation but then decline as economies mature and social welfare policies take effect. Countries need to evolve national policies to control the growth of inequality, while still retaining the motivational factors that promote economic growth. Population decline, productivity and growth Sustained below-replacement fertility is likely to be widespread in coming decades, and many countries will have to address the social and economic consequences of falling populations. This poses challenges to economic growth. To see why population decline matters to economic growth, consider that the growth rate of total GDP equals population growth rate plus the growth rate of GDP per capita. Given a population decline at -1 to -2 percent per year, the economy can grow only Population pyramids for China (a), India (b), Japan (c) and United States (d), 2010. Horizontal bars, males (blue), females (red) in 5-year age group. Black segments show the excess of the corresponding sex. In Japan and US, male excess in the youngest age group is 5 percent (the biologically expected value), in China and India the value is 15 percent. Age groups from 0–4 years to 100+ years. Data sources: World Population Prospects 2019.
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