OPEC Fund Quarterly - 2023 Q4

the share of other regions. To put this into perspective, the figure for Asia is 9.1 percent, followed by 8.6 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean, 5.8 percent in Oceania and less than 2.5 percent in North America and Europe. Africa also has the highest burden of acute food insecurity, with 16 out of 24 countries in the world classified as hunger hotspots by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP) located on the continent. Food insecurity manifests itself differently between and within regions and countries. Across Africa, 38 nations face acute food insecurity, topped by five conflict-affected countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (with 25.8 million people affected), Nigeria (24.9 million), Sudan (20.3 million), Ethiopia (19.9 million) and South Sudan (7.8 million). Together, these five countries account for almost two-thirds of food insecurity across the continent. Beyond violent conflict, various factors are driving this rise, including poverty, weak institutions, poor governance, extreme weather and limited access to modern technologies. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine further deepened these trends, with supply chain disruptions of food and fertilizers. Food insecurity in Africa has a far-reaching impact and is closely intertwined with climate and poverty insecurity. For example, food insecurity depletes resources and increases

The ripple effects of climate insecurity Climate change poses an existential threat to current and future life on earth. We are witnessing more frequent heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and expanding deserts as water access declines. Natural disasters are becoming more common, glaciers are melting and sea levels are rising globally. According to a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), more than 3 billion people, over 40 percent of the global population, are classed as “highly vulnerable”. Yet climate change affects different regions, countries and cities in different ways. Despite contributing the least to global warming, Africa is the most vulnerable region worldwide. Currently, 17 of the 20 countries most threatened by climate change are in Africa, and climate change impacts national budgets across the continent by 2 to 9 percent, according to the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). The frequency of floods, storms and droughts in the region has increased massively, from 85 recorded events in the 1970s to over 540 between 2010 and 2019. Some areas bear the heaviest burden of climate insecurity, with North Africa and West Africa particularly vulnerable, expecting temperature increases of between 1.5°C and 3°C.

Climate change insecurity in Africa has several causes, including deforestation, land degradation, over-reliance on rain-fed agriculture, rapid urbanization with population growth, dependence on fossil fuels and weak adaptation and mitigation policies. This insecurity is closely linked with food scarcity, poverty and health concerns. Climate change reduces agricultural productivity, impedes poverty reduction and exacerbates socio-economic inequalities. For example, East Africa has lost almost 2 million livestock in a year due to recurrent drought and low-response capacity. Climate change also exacerbates malnutrition, heatstroke and disease outbreaks, including malaria and cholera. This complex interplay between climate change insecurity and issues of food and poverty underlines the need for integrated policy approaches. How poverty perpetuates the cycle of insecurity Global extreme poverty decreased from 2 billion people in 1990 to 682 million people in 2022, with the highest reductions in East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia. Factors contributing to this trend include the rapid economic growth of developing countries, improved access to education and healthcare,

vulnerability to environmental changes, exacerbating climate

insecurity. Malnutrition arising from food insecurity also impacts physical and cognitive development, leading to increased childhood illness and mortality. Moreover, food insecurity contributes significantly to poverty, creating or reinforcing cycles of hardship and vulnerability. In Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia recurrent droughts have severely impacted agricultural productivity, leading to food shortages and increased poverty, particularly in rural areas.

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