OPEC Fund Quarterly - 2025 Q2

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Research in South Korea estimates that exposure to temperatures above 30°C in the second trimester lowers birth weight by 0.8 percent in the country.

High temperatures, low birthrates Predicting an optimal health policy in a warming world is about as tricky as predicting the weather itself, though surprisingly the two go hand in hand. A new study in the journal Weather, Climate, and Society finds a link between extreme temperatures and birth weight in South Korea. A researcher from the Korea Institute of Public Finance estimated that

Second, one can presumably infer that lower-income mothers have fewer opportunities to avoid high temperatures compared to the higher income group, meaning that

although healthcare services are readily available in South Korea, poor people are still more susceptible to temperature shocks. National policies, especially in places with less advanced or accessible healthcare systems, would be wise to take income into account when designing extreme temperature care for pregnant women. Finally, birth rates are

exposure to temperatures above 30°C (85°F) in the second trimester lowers birth weight by 0.8 percent in the country. According to the study, this negative effect was more apparent in the lowest quarter household income group than that of the highest quarter.

declining worldwide but nowhere more so than in South Korea, which already has one

This finding matters for a number of reasons. First, the link between higher temperatures and lower birth rates is corroborated by similar studies in many different countries. Compared to the USA, China and various Andean nations, South Korea has a higher average temperature during the hottest month of the year. Therefore, as temperatures rise, South Korea may offer a reference point for other countries that are showing similar temperature patterns.

of the world’s lowest birth rates (in addition to one of the longest life expectancies). Generally, without large-scale immigration, an average of 2.1 babies per woman is needed to stabilize the population. South Korea’s fertility rate in 2024 was 0.75 babies per woman. The long-term effect of this is a dramatic population decline. After reaching a peak with 51.83 million in 2020, Statistics Korea estimates that by 2072 that number will shrink to 36.22 million, a loss of 30 percent. From community events to national cuisines to the health of the next generation, climate change is set to redefine our world in so many ways. The question now is: How can we score a home run for climate action?

“Without large-scale immigration, an average of 2.1 babies per woman is needed in order to stabilize the population.”

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