integration into the global economy, moving out of export agriculture and into tourism, alongside unorthodox strategies such as offshore finance and high dependence on remittances. While these approaches generated foreign exchange, they are volatile and depend on free flows of human and financial capital. Even though they are responsible for less than 1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, the impacts of climate change will hit SIDS more rapidly and forcefully than any other group of countries, threatening their survival in an existential way. As early as 2009 the Maldives issued a stark warning with the world’s first underwater cabinet meeting: “We are trying to send our message to let the world know what is happening and what will happen to the Maldives if climate change isn’t checked,” said then President Mohamed Nasheed, adding, “If we can’t save the Maldives today, you can’t save the rest of the world tomorrow.” The stunt did not fail to draw attention. The underwater cabinet meeting made headlines around the world. But did it change the course of their fate or that of approximately 65 million people worldwide who are extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change? According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), “from 1970 to 2020, SIDS lost US$153 billion due to weather, climate and water- related hazards – a significant amount given that the average GDP for SIDS is US$13.7 billion. For those SIDS whose land lies only 5 meters or less above sea level, projected sea level rise represents a direct threat to their existence.” The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) understands SIDS’ vulnerability in light of several interconnected risks with grave consequences: SIDS host 12 percent of the global bird population and 10 percent of mammals, yet many species are at risk of extinction. Sea level rise is projected to increase, which will lead to significant flooding and storm surges. For example, the Comoros predicts a loss of 734 hectares of agricultural land and displacement of about 10 percent of the population across the archipelago by 2050.
“As early as 2009 the Maldives issued a stark warning with the world’s first underwater cabinet meeting”
expenses and the cost of borrowing. For example, tuna stocks are expected to decline due to climate change, causing major economic losses to Pacific SIDS. Overall estimated losses are staggeringly high: The OECD speaks of economic losses reaching over US$78 billion, mostly since 2000 and mostly in the Caribbean. The World Meteorological Organization estimates that SIDS have lost US$153 billion since 1970, a number also quoted by the UNDP. When looking at individual losses and damages in specific SIDS, these figures take on another dimension: the World Bank estimates that a natural disaster can cause economic losses equal to 200 percent of GDP, as happened to Grenada with Hurricane Ivan in 2004. Temperature increases are set to raise mortality rates among outdoor workers and lead to a greater prevalence of diseases. Climate change will increasingly impact local food systems, affecting food security, increasing levels of malnutrition and leading to
Surrounded by saltwater, SIDS’ freshwater supply is especially
vulnerable to climate change, affecting these islands’ inhabitants. Forty-four percent of SIDS have reached the water- stress threshold due to urbanization and population growth, combined with longer and more intense droughts. Settlements and infrastructure are increasingly exposed to extreme events in SIDS with sizeable impacts on climate- sensitive industries such as agriculture, fisheries, transport, energy and tourism. These sectors are key to SIDS’ GDP and strain public finances by increasing
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