SPECIAL FEATURE
OPEC Fund Quarterly : How is climate change impacting the Maldives? Khadeeja Naseem: The Maldives is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world when it comes to the worst impacts of climate change. Our islands are basically made up of coral reefs surrounded by marine life. These reefs are not only our first line of defense against the rising tides; they also provide us with food and income because tourism and fisheries are our biggest industries. Everything comes from the ocean for us, so if the reefs die, the Maldives will cease to exist. Because of climate change, the sea is getting hotter and 2023 was one of the hottest years on record. Sea surface temperatures also increased, so we had to deal with a situation similar to 2016 (another warm “El Niño” year) when nearly three- quarters of our reefs were bleached and died off. When scientists predicted increased temperatures, which could lead to a tipping point, that was very scary for us. Our islands are already suffering coastal erosion because of increased wave energy; our coral reefs are dying because of the hotter sea temperatures; and there’s flooding like we’ve never seen before. January 2024 saw record levels of flooding especially in the capital, Malé. The weather is becoming increasingly unpredictable. Hard rainfalls are getting more intense and occurring in a shorter period of time, leading to severe impacts – and this in a world that has only surpassed a temperature increase of 1.2°C [above pre-industrial levels]. We can barely cope. If we are to limit global warming to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions need to peak before 2025 and then fall by over 40 percent by 2030. COP28 in Dubai was really important because of the “Global Stocktake” – to ensure that we’re staying on the agreed path. When we speak about 1.5°C on the Maldives, we’re talking about whether our country remains functional and inhabitable. We’re talking fundamentals. OFQ : Is water security another issue for the Maldives? KN: Water is a big problem. We have run out of freshwater on every single island in the Maldives and have to resort to providing reverse osmosis – i.e. purifying
seawater – in a very energy intensive manner. That’s been one of our top priorities because some islands regularly run out of water in the dry season. We then have to ship water to these islands without the infrastructure – which begs the question: why can’t we do a better job at rainwater harvesting and adopting other more sustainable methods? One of the first projects that the Maldives got approved under the Green Climate Fund (GCF) was on the issue of freshwater, of harvesting rainwater and making it available in a more sustainable manner. The project was carried out on 29 islands, with a focus on building up infrastructure. OFQ : What are the prospects for the Maldives over the next 10-20 years? KN: The Maldives cannot do anything about the temperature control of the world because we’re negligible. In fact Small Island Developing States (SIDS) all together contribute barely 1 percent of all GHG emissions, according to UN data, so it’s really up to the large emitters to course correct and put the world back on track. If that doesn’t happen, the projections look very bad for the Maldives in 10- 20 years from now. If we overshoot 1.5°C by 2030, then according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) there’s a 90 percent chance that all our coral reefs will die off. That will shut down our tourism and our fisheries industries – and put our very existence in question. There’s also going to be more frequent and intense storms and sea swells, so it will be hard to keep many of our atolls inhabitable and almost impossible to have decent livelihoods. The only way we can withstand the climate impacts is by building up our infrastructure, including sea walls and desalination plants. That will reduce the long-term losses and damages, which force us to borrow and rebuild each time and which put us in a perpetual cycle of borrowing, using funds that would otherwise go into social welfare, education, health services and all the important things that make a society stable and functional. We constantly have to divert funds into emergency relief, so we go further and further back in terms of our resilience.
Freshwater has to be produced by purifying seawater – a very energy intensive process.
We’re also rapidly transitioning to an economy fueled by sunshine because the COVID-19 pandemic really demonstrated our vulnerability to imports. Right now we spend about 10 percent of our GDP on importing oil – so it’s not only an environmental need but also an economic case in terms of resilience. We’re trying to ensure our energy security by transitioning more to renewable energy. For mitigation there’s always the business case, always a case for profit and a reason why the private sector would get involved. But for adaptation measures there’s always the argument that there’s no financial incentive for people to invest in an expensive sea wall for millions of dollars because it is not something that will make money in the long term. But actually there is a business case for working with the best designs and the best data, because when done cheaply you end up having to pay again later. We’ve had instances of maladaptation, for instance putting a harbor in the wrong area of the island or using a design that further exacerbates erosion on the islands, because a quick intervention was required but not enough resources
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