SPECIAL FEATURE
Sea Level Change Projection
According to projections by NASA’s Sea Level Change Team, by the end of the century sea levels are expected to rise dramatically, endangering coastal settlements and changing ocean ecosystems. The degree of sea level rise correlates strongly with the rise in global temperatures. Under the most conservative (best-case) scenario, if temperatures are kept to 1.5°C, sea levels are projected to increase 0.44 m by the end of the century. The most extreme high-warming scenario (though one with low-confidence) has ocean levels increase up to 1.6 m by 2100.
1.6
Median/likely range 1.5˚C
Flood waters engulf houses and rice fields in Sakon Nakhon, Thailand
1.4
High Warming – Low Confidence
1.2
1.0
0.8
What causes the sea level to change? The average global sea level is influenced by three factors:
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year
Ice melt Warmer temperatures cause Earth’s frozen freshwater in the form of glaciers found all over the world and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to melt and flow into the ocean. The melting of land ice is the most significant contributor to rising ocean waters. Thermal expansion Water expands as it warms. A hotter ocean is a fuller ocean. Land water storage Groundwater pumped from non-recharging aquifers can eventually flow into the sea. On the opposite end, large dams prevent river water from finding its way into the ocean.
Source: NASA Sea Level Change Team
Of course, besides stronger hurricanes, SIDS face all the other types of climate- induced natural disasters that affect other places in the world including heatwaves and droughts. A game of dominoes The existential danger of sea level rise and the annual danger of hurricane season are hardly the only climate- related challenges small island nations have to deal with. They are sometimes the first dominoes that knock down subsequent dominoes. Flooding and coastal erosion are problems in and of themselves, but they also lead to infrastructure damage and changes in biodiversity. Fishing and tourism make up a good portion of the GDP of many SIDS, so damage to ports and other infrastructure risks toppling yet more dominoes. That is all the more likely if there is less money available to grow these industries because they are busy repairing damage just to get back to square one. Climate change disproportionally
affects SIDS, which often have the smallest leverage when it comes to mobilizing international support to help them prepare for long-term climate adaptation instead of just addressing the issues of the day. Yet, there is hope in terms of changing how the rest of the world views the unique problems SIDS face. In November 2023, UN Development Programme (UNDP) – the Maldives published a report titled “Loss and Damage Climate Litigation” which lays out a path for SIDS to advocate for better climate action. “This duality can trigger a pivotal shift in global climate discourse, positioning countries like the Maldives not as victims but as nations at the forefront of change,” wrote Kanni Wignaraja, UN Assistant Secretary-General and UNDP Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific and Enrico Gaveglia, UNDP Resident Representative in the Maldives in the report’s introduction. “Their struggles and resilience offer invaluable lessons and strategies, pushing for a world that listens, learns, and acts.”
Source: NASA Sea Level Change Team
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