OPEC Fund Quarterly - 2024 Q1

ECONOMY

Table 2: SCR Partner Countries and Categorization

By including states that have high levels of fragility but are not “small” in terms of geographic size or population (such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo) or are landlocked, a more comprehensive understanding of small states can be reached (Table 2). By taking into account a country’s debt stock, debt servicing, and debt sustainability, this can further enhance the understanding of the key factors that help determine what a small state is. Essentially, all SCR countries are considered either fragile, conflict- affected, an island or small. Key development challenges FSDS face unique development challenges. While sharing common challenges associated with the small size of their economies and vulnerability to external shocks, FSDS represent a very diverse group of countries. A lack of economic scale, often remote location and particular geography (such as being landlocked), health-related emergencies, and vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters lead to particular needs that sometimes cannot be easily met. Moreover, with limited economic opportunities and significant migration, FSDS often face capacity constraints, further undermining their ability to grow and develop. FSDS share many wide-ranging and distinct characteristics: •  Population: Many FSDS are micro states (i.e. with a population of less than 200,000) such as Tuvalu’s roughly 11,204 residents. While also being an island, Madagascar has a population of nearly 30 million, so although it does not meet the micro population criteria it is nonetheless a fragile island state (reflected in environmental risks and high levels of poverty). States such as DR Congo, with a population of nearly 90 million, also do not meet the small (geographic) state criteria – but considering the high level of fragility in the country (notably conflict and institutional weakness), it is a credible candidate for FSDS status. Overall, population size is an important determinant – either because a small population cannot drive or sustain a large and

Country/Region

Fragile a

Conflict b

Landlocked

Small State c

Island State Debt Distressed

ASIA/PACIFIC 1 2 Bhutan 3 Maldives

Afghanistan

Yes Yes Yes

Yes

Yes Yes

High

Yes Yes Yes Yes

Moderate

Yes Yes Yes

High

4 Solomon Islands Yes

Moderate

5 Tonga

Yes

High

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 16 Benin

Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Moderate Moderate

17 Burkina Faso

Yes

Yes Yes Yes

6 Burundi

High High High

18 Chad

7 Comoros

Yes

Yes

19 Congo, Dem Rep Yes

Yes

Moderate

8 Djibouti 20 Gambia 22 Guinea

Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Yes Yes

High High

Moderate

21 Guinea-Bissau

Yes

High

9 Lesotho 23 Liberia

Yes

Moderate Moderate Moderate In distress Moderate Moderate In distress Moderate Moderate

10 Madagascar

Yes

11 Malawi

Yes Yes

24 Mali

Yes

25 Mauritania 12 Mozambique

Yes Yes

26 Niger

Yes Yes

13 Rwanda

27 Sierra Leone

High

28 Togo

Moderate In distress In distress

14 Zambia

Yes Yes

15 Zimbabwe

LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN 29 Dominica Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes Yes Yes

High

30 Grenada

Yes Yes Yes

In distress

31 Haiti

High

32 St. Lucia 33 St. Vincent

Yes

& Grenadines

Yes

Yes

Yes

High

MIDDLE EAST/EUROPE/CENTRAL ASIA 34 Kyrgyzstan Yes

Yes Yes

Moderate

35 Tajikistan

Yes

High

a  Fragile reflects exposure to natural disasters and climate change, weak socioeconomic fundamentals, institutional weakness, unfavorable terms of trade etc. b  Conflict reflects civil war, war in neighboring country, post-conflict environment, political instability etc. c  Country with a population +/- 1.5 mn people. d  Risk of Debt Distress as per latest WB/IMF classification. e  SCR Country yet to be approved.

•  Geography: FSDS are distributed across all regions of the world and about two-thirds are island states. Many FSDS also have large, extensive and distinct geographical features such as mountain ranges, deserts, jungles and coastal expanses that inhibit transport, communications and connectivity.

sophisticated economy, or vice versa a large population in a fragile state can sustain endemic poverty. Moreover, high GDP per capita is not a clear sign that a country is in a solid economic position and is also not fragile (for example, the Maldives, Grenada, Kyrgyz Republic).

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