OPEC Fund Quarterly - 2024 Q4

The Rochina favela in Rio de Janeiro

THE CITY OF TOMORROW

Bruno Nabagné Koné, Minister of Construction, Housing and Urban Planning, Côte d’Ivoire; Abidjan in Côte d’Ivoire circa 1900 (inset)

Photo: Mikko Miettinen/ Shutterstock

When it comes to the many flavors of sustainable development, renewable energy, decarbonization technologies and advanced agricultural methods probably spring to mind ahead of sustainable cities. Yet ensuring our metropolitan areas contribute to a global net good is one of the biggest challenges of sustainable development. We built this city As the world becomes more and more urbanized, some cities will see growth rates in a matter of decades that other cities took centuries to realize. For example, in the 1940s, the city of Kinshasa (then called Léopoldville) boasted a population of just over 50,000. Eighty years later, 17 million people call it home, making it Africa’s most populous city. This explosive population trend is hardly unique to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. “In the 1960s, when Côte d’Ivoire became independent, some 15 percent of the population lived in urban areas,” said the country’s Minister of Construction, Housing and Urban Planning, Bruno Nabagné Koné. “Now 53 percent of the population is urbanized. By 2050, between 75-80 percent of the population is expected to be living in urban areas. So you can see over the span of some 60 years, where many European countries took centuries.” Minister Koné made this point at the UNIDO “Bridge for Cities” conference in Vienna in October 2024. Under the

theme “Innovative Solutions for the Cities of Tomorrow,” the conference looked at the impact of urbanization on global development, especially in terms of housing. The pace of urbanization is staggering. In 1960, according to the World Development Indicators from the World Bank, a third of the global population lived in cities. By 2023, that number had reached 57 percent – with no sign of slowing down. Such growth is not even, however. Sub-Saharan African countries have seen waves of people moving to cities over the past 60 years. Botswana, for example, has witnessed one of the most dramatic increases, up from just 3 percent urbanized in 1960 to 73 percent in 2023. The East Asia & Pacific region has experienced similar spikes and jumped from 17 percent urbanization in 1960 to 60 percent in 2023. Slum like it hot All those people moving into urban areas need a place to stay. More often than not the low-cost and affordable housing supply cannot keep up with housing demand, resulting in both higher prices and more and more precarious living arrangements. These slums are not always haphazard settlements on the outskirts of cities. The Rochina favela in Rio de Janeiro, the country’s largest, is very close to skyscrapers and more affluent areas, providing close access to jobs. After all,

economic opportunities have long been one of the main reasons for migration. For most of the world, the challenge to offer a suitable space for their growing urban populations is key not just to ensure economic growth but to curb negative environmental impacts. The issue is addressed within the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Target 11.1 aims to “ensure access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services and upgrade slums” by 2030. Success is measured in the reduction of the proportion of the urban population living in “slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing.” With only a few years until the 2030 deadline, the outlook is not good. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest percentage of its urban population living in slums at just over 53 percent, according to the UN. What’s more, the region is expected to have 360 million more people living in precarious conditions by 2030. If you build it, they will come Back at the “Bridge for Cities” event, several solutions were floated. Côte d’Ivoire’s Minister Koné said that cities should be seen as part of the solution, not the problem: “We are systematically promoting a favorable environment in our cities,” he said. “That means building cities that contribute economically. Cities that are a conducive environment to quality of life or human development and at the same time

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