ANNEX
RESULTS ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY & LIMITATIONS
METHODOLOGY The results data analysis was carried out based on a thorough desk review of approval, supervision and com- pletion documents available in OPEC Fund repositories and on public websites such as those of co-financiers from projects that have been completed since 2018. Results data presented in this report are as reported by OPEC Fund borrowers and/or of co-financiers (the latter only in case of completion reports produced by and available from them). For four projects analyzed as part of last year’s universe of projects, the completion date was retroactively changed to before 2018 since the publication of the 2022 Development Effectiveness Report, but these projects were kept in the analysis to ensure continuity and comparability with the previous year’s exercise. Based on the document review, a comprehensive project results database was constructed. DATA AVAILABILITY AND QUALITY Of the 190 public and private sector non-trade projects reviewed, the OPEC Fund was able to locate documented results data for 134 (71 percent of all reviewed) projects. Data about target and actual results values were found for 93 (49 percent of projects). In cases where targets and results were available, overall average target achievement was 126 percent, with 58 projects (62 percent of all projects with target and actual values) achieving more than 100 per- cent of their targets on average. It is difficult to infer overall target achievement rates because of the limited number of projects for which this comparison was possible (only 75 of 150 public sector projects, only 17 of 40 private sector pro- jects). When available, target values were gathered, along with actual results data, from completion or supervision re- ports to reflect the fact that project targets are sometimes updated during a project’s life as they evolve during imple- mentation. Where targets were not available from comple- tion or supervision reports, the analysis used the targets set out in approval documents. Projects without target results data include public sector projects for which the logical
framework was too imprecise to extract target values, and private sector projects for which it was not possible to infer results expectations from the narrative (until recently, private sector projects had not consistently included a table with quantitative development results projections). RESULTS SCOPE In line with practices of other multilateral development banks, results reported are typically those of the support- ed projects and not just of the OPEC Fund’s contribution, as selecting the results of OPEC Fund contributions only was in most cases not feasible based on the available data and/or due to the projects’ nature. However, when OPEC Fund financing was focused on specific components that produced results clearly distinct from those of the rest of the project, only the results of OPEC Fund-financed com- ponents were considered. Similarly, whenever the amount of the provided financing was directly proportional (such as for cash transfers) to the results achieved, only the pro- portionally attributable results were considered. Over the coming years, the OPEC Fund will assess to what extent identifying contribution-specific results is feasible and advisable, either based on contribution-specific reporting or the application of an attribution factor. OUTPUTS VS. OUTCOMES Development results can measure assets, products or services directly delivered by projects (outputs) or the effects that the delivery and use of these assets, products or services entail (outcomes). While it is important to know whether outputs have been delivered, development effec- tiveness assessment typically requires also to know wheth- er the delivered outputs have had the desired effects in improving aspects of people’s lives. Data on outcomes are, however, often more difficult to collect than data on out- puts. Most of the results available from OPEC Fund project documentation were data on outputs (such as kilometers
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