CHAPTER 3
FOOD SECURITY IMPACTS OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE
Figure 5: FAO Food Price Index December 2019 – December 2023 (2014-2016=100)
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At the outset of war in February 2022, exports of crops, edible oils, fertilizers, and other related goods from Ukraine and Russia were significantly disrupted. As Ukraine is a significant producer and exporter of var- ious agricultural products, these disruptions have af- fected global commodity markets, leading to increased food prices internationally. As the war has continued, crop planting and production has also been adverse- ly affected: Ukraine’s grain production in 2022/23 de- creased by nearly one third. Before the war, around 90 percent of Ukraine’s agricul- tural exports were transported by sea. Following the start of the war, the Russian military blocked Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and brought exports to a virtual stand- still. As a major grain supplier to the world, this forced prices up to the detriment of hundreds of millions of people in partner countries. With actions taken to im- plement alternative transport routes (solidarity lanes), and by the UN and Türkiye to unblock the ports (the Black Sea Grain Initiative), exports increased and food prices steadily declined. However, in July 2023, Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Until that time, 40 percent of Ukraine’s grain had been transported via the Black Sea ports, while 60 percent went overland via the solidar- ity lanes. After Russia’s withdrawal from the initiative, exports from Ukraine declined once again driving glob- al prices up again. While the positive global harvest outlook for 2023 has been somewhat stabilizing grain prices, global food supply remains insecure as the war and Russia’s blockage of the Black Sea ports reduces Ukraine’s ability to export sufficient grain and foodstuff to the global market. While the war’s impact on Ukrain- ian grain exports was mitigated by pre-war sowing and the large stocks accumulated in 2022, future exports will be severely impacted due to lost or damaged pro- duction facilities and unplanted areas.
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Source: UN FAO Food Price Index https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/food- pricesindex/en
The pandemic shock was closely followed, and exacerbat- ed, by the disruptions to food supply and production sys- tems caused by the war in Ukraine (see box) which started in February 2022. Initiatives such as The Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), a UN-brokered agreement between Russia and Ukraine, allowed Ukraine to partially resume the ex- ports of grains and other agricultural products through Black Sea shipping routes that had been blocked following the Russian invasion, helped ease some food trade pres- sures (the BSGI subsequently collapsed in July 2023).
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