RESULTS ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY & LIMITATIONS
METHODOLOGY. The results data analysis was carried out based on a thorough desk review of approval, supervision and completion documents available in OPEC Fund repos- itories and on public websites such as those of co-financi- ers. Based on the document review, a comprehensive project results database was constructed. DATA AVAILABILITY AND QUALITY. Of the 167 public and private sector non-trade projects reviewed, the OPEC Fund was able to locate documented results data for 115 (69 per- cent of all reviewed) projects. Data about target and actual results values were found for 78 (47 percent of) projects. In cases where targets and results were available, overall aver- age target achievement was 127 percent, with 46 projects (59 percent of all projects with target and actual values) achiev- ing more than 100 percent of their targets on average. It is difficult to infer overall target achievement rates because of the limited number of projects for which this comparison was possible (only 65 of 135 public sector projects, only 13 of 32 private sector projects). When available, target values were gathered, along with actual results data, from completion or supervision reports to reflect the fact that project targets are sometimes updated during a project’s life as they evolve dur- ing implementation. Where targets were not available from completion or supervision reports, the analysis used the tar- gets set out in approval documents. Projects without target results data include public sector projects for which the log- ical framework was too imprecise to extract target values, and private sector projects for which it was not possible to
infer results expectations from the narrative (until recently, private sector projects had not consistently included a table with quantitative development results projections).
RESULTS SCOPE. In line with practices of other multilateral development banks, results reported are those of the sup- ported projects and not just of the OPEC Fund’s contribution, as selecting the results of OPEC Fund contributions only was in most cases not feasible based on the available data and/ or due to the projects’ nature. Over the coming years, the OPEC Fund will assess to what extent identifying contribu- tion-specific results is feasible and advisable, either based on contribution-specific reporting or the application of an attri- bution factor. OUTPUTS VS. OUTCOMES. Development results can meas- ure assets, products or services directly delivered by projects (outputs) or the effects that the delivery and use of these assets, products or services entail (outcomes). While it is im- portant to know whether outputs have been delivered, devel- opment effectiveness assessment typically requires also to know whether the delivered outputs have had the desired effects in improving aspects of people’s lives. Data on out- comes are, however, often more difficult to collect than data on outputs. Most of the results available from OPEC Fund project documentation were data on outputs (such as kilo meters of road constructed, megawatts installed, schools built, etc.), whereas often their use was not reported, leading to significant data gaps for intermediary outcome indicators
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