CURRENT AFFAIRS
Global mean temperature increase by 2100
CAT (Climate Action Tracker) warming projections are shown below. The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are commitments that countries make to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as part of climate change mitigation.
Policies and action Real-world action based on current policies 2030 targets only Based on NDC targets (temperatures continue to rise after 2100) Pledges and targets Based on 2030 NDC targets and submitted and binding long-term targets Optimistic scenario Best case scenario and assumes full implementation of all announced targets including net-zero targets, Long-term Climate Strategies and NDCs
+4°C
+3.4°C
+3.2°C
+3°C
+2.7°C
+2.6°C
+2.7°C
+2.2°C
+2.4°C +1.9°C
+2.1°C
+2.1°C
+2°C
+1.7°C
+1.5°C
+1.5°C Paris Agreement Goal
Status 2023: 1.3°C warming
+1°C
+0°C
Pre-industrial average
Source: Climate Action Tracker
1.5°C ‘over decades’ as the benchmark for the Paris Agreement when predicting temperatures over the next decade.” Consider the implications for a moment. By this rationale, international authorities will not formally confirm the 1.5°C breach until mid-century, which begs the multitrillion-dollar question: How can we plan for the future if our final assessments are decades out of date? More helpful are the graphics on macroeconomic trends, i.e. the parallel upticks in global population, oil production, agricultural productivity, GDP and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. These have largely been enabled by technological advancements, says the author – but by the same token many in the international development community are now banking on future technologies to rein in overshoot. “Current country policies, when taken together, are projected to result in
about 2.7°C of warming,” says the report, citing the Cologne-based Climate Action Tracker. Unlike the more linear rise of global temperature change, Kapnick notes that wildfires and heatwaves occur in non- linear ways. Higher temperatures bring a higher probability of extreme weather events, but they remain difficult to predict and pinpoint. “For example, the likelihood for the most extreme heat waves has been growing at a more rapid pace than changes in lesser heatwaves and average temperatures,” says Kapnick. “This isn’t due to unrealistic forecasts of future climate, but is a simple mathematical fact of how shifting distributions affect probabilities of extreme events and our perception of risk above a specific threshold. In other words, while average temperatures inch up steadily, extreme events like heatwaves are happening at a faster pace.”
Circling back to the beginning, one more troubling aspect is the core term of “intuition” – which appears in the headline and eight times throughout the brief. Some readers may ask why, in these most turbulent times, the report leads with nebulous feelings over concrete facts. Perhaps this is Kapnick’s way of nudging us towards more innovative decision-making or a way of flagging that the old world of relative certainty and stability is over. To paraphrase US political strategist Lee Atwater, perhaps perception really is reality.
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