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SE4All Forum in Kigali, May 2022
PHOTO: Pradeep Gaurs/Shutterstock.com
energy in developing countries has slowed significantly in recent years, dropping by almost a quarter from 2018-2019. “The failure to hit the US$100 billion target [for climate finance from rich to poor countries] is likely to remain closely scrutinized,” says Martinos. “COP27 saw some progress to close this gap, with noteworthy recent initiatives including ‘Just Energy Transition Partnerships’ struck by Europe and the USA with South Africa and Indonesia. “But the scale of the overall challenge is much greater, with external climate finance needs for developing economies recently put at around US$1 trillion annually by 2030. Long-standing financing challenges are now an area of greater focus, as multiple actors seek to expand sources of funding and the pipeline of bankable projects. As well as increasing the role for development
finance institutions there is also a proliferation of innovative schemes such as plans to direct carbon offset dollars through mechanisms like the US- backed Energy Transition Accelerator, set to channel billions in private sector investment towards renewable energy.” On speeding up the actual rollout of renewables, Martinos and Khalid cite the need to customize infrastructure in developing countries, for example via mini-grids and off-grid electricity. Yet the demands are not only technical. Both agree on the need to improve transparency and trust by tackling policy and regulatory gaps. Martinos sums it up: “Policy progress has been noteworthy, with initiatives including the US Inflation Reduction Act, the EU’s REPowerEU and Green Deal agendas, and Japan’s Green Growth Strategy all supporting the expansion
of clean energy industries, and speeding the rollout of these technologies. One example is plug-in electric vehicles, which made up over 10 percent of new global auto sales in 2022. But while recent policy moves should encourage accelerated investment, there are also concerns that they could fuel trade disputes and protectionism.” On SDG 13, carbon dioxide emissions linked to energy increased by 6 percent in 2021, reaching their highest levels in recorded history. That year was also one of the seven warmest on record, marked by unprecedented heatwaves in Canada, deadly floods in Europe and Asia, as well as severe droughts in parts of Africa and Latin America. Martinos says: “On global progress toward climate goals – (especially goal 13.2) we see that activity is accelerating – but that it’s not fast enough. Most assessments put the world on a path to global temperature increases of well over 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and scope for keeping a 1.5°C pathway alive now looks increasingly slim. CO2 emissions have (2020 aside) grown every year since Paris (2015), so the emissions cuts needed to keep the world on a Paris-aligned pathway grow steeper every year.” The “Global Stocktake” (assessing collective progress on the implement- ation of the Paris Agreement) is set to underscore such concerns and highlight the urgency of faster action. That was noted by the new COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who in January 2023 said: “We are way off track.”
Seventy-five million people who recently gained access to electricity are likely to lose the ability to pay for it.
Alex Martinos, Energy Intelligence, Director of Energy Transition Research
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