COP29 BOOK REVIEW ADAPTATION OR BUST
Survival of the Greenest Amir Lebdioui, Cambridge University Press
“The message is unequivocal: We must either adapt to these evolving realities (and embrace the opportunities they present) or face the consequences of inaction.” Amir Lebdioui, Director, Technology & Management Centre for Development, Oxford University By Howard Hudson, OPEC Fund
H eresy! That was the main accusation leveled at Charles Darwin for his 1859 book On the Origin of Species . Yet by the turn of the century his theory of natural selection had shifted the paradigm and entered the mainstream. Now, over 160 years later amid a deepening climate crisis, a new book by the Algerian academic Amir Lebdioui opens with Darwin’s famous summary: “It is not the most intellectual of the species that survives; it is not the strongest that survives; but the species that survives is the one that is able best to adapt and adjust to the changing environment in which it finds itself.” Survival of the Greenest is timely but not groundbreaking in a Darwinian sense – nor even about ecological survival per se . Instead its main aim is to challenge the global elites who “talk the talk”, yet break commitments while hiding behind green protectionism and double standards. The thrust of Lebdioui’s argument is to rewire the global economy, so that all countries become more resilient and the international community more equitable. Lebdioui presses the Global North to play fair on international cooperation, lest the entire system fails. By 2020, he notes, the USA had not even paid 20 percent of its commitment (less than US$8 of US$40 billion) to help poor nations adapt to climate change and mitigate higher temperatures. Elsewhere, he cites the EU’s 2023 Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on goods such as cement, fertilizer and steel; while
“It is not the most intellectual of the species that survives; it is not the strongest that survives; but the species that survives is the one that is able best to adapt and adjust to the changing environment in which it finds itself.”
North Africa will need to forge “new elite bargains”, which may be difficult politically, says Lebdioui. But from a technical perspective “activities such as chemical and temperature engineering services can be easily repurposed towards green hydrogen production, oil and gas reservoirs can be reconverted for carbon storage, and the construction and maintenance of offshore oil platforms involve a range of technological capabilities that can serve the construction of offshore wind platforms, while petroleum refineries can be repurposed as biofuel refineries.” It is possible, reassures Lebdioui, citing the rise of 3M from a small American mining concern in the early 1900s to a multibillion-dollar conglomerate with over 60,000 products – including Post-it notes – and 90,000 employees worldwide. As with industrialization in the 20th century, lessons can be learned but there are no “green silver bullets” and no one-size-fits-all solutions. Lebdioui says all countries should weigh up their regional contexts, the size of their domestic markets and their natural and human resources. “Some distinctions must also be drawn between ‘developing countries’,” he says, “which, as a category, lump together countries facing very different situations, ranging from China, Malaysia, and Mexico, which have developed green industrial capabilities, to low-income commodity-based nations such as Suriname, Togo, and Papua New Guinea.”
Charles Darwin, On the Origin of Species
laudable from a climate perspective it is set to cost African nations more than US$30 billion in compliance investments and additional export fees. He also notes how the EU is blocking the World Trade Organization’s Environmental Goods Agreement by refusing to liberalize tariffs on bicycles, which by any account are emissions-free. Meanwhile, Lebdioui urges countries across the Global South to seize their “green windows of opportunity”, particularly in terms of product, process and chain upgrading. That means re-training workforces, adding value to products before export, making value chains more sustainable, while phasing out assets that may soon be “stranded” in the global green economy – primarily fossil fuels. In diversifying their economies, countries across the Middle East and
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