COP29 PREVIEW
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM COP29 Last year’s conference in Dubai was hailed as “the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era. So what happens after the end? By Axel Reiserer, OPEC Fund
T he outcome of the UN Climate Change Conference COP28 in Dubai in December 2023 was hailed by many as historic. Almost 200 nations agreed on a roadmap for “transitioning away from fossil fuels.” UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell urged to convert the agreement into action: “Now all governments and businesses need to turn these pledges into real- economy outcomes, without delay.” Intense preparations are expected to lead to concrete results at COP29 in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22. Although the country is a major oil producer, it is suffering itself from impacts of global warming and has made “green growth
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for instance, speaks of a range from US$5-9 trillion. While it is widely understood that the floor of US$100 billion is insufficient, there is no agreement how much should be provided and by whom. Currently, only countries that were classified as developed in 1992, when the UNFCCC was signed, need contribute to climate finance for the developing world. But the world has changed enormously since then. China, for instance, is now the world’s biggest emitter by far – and also the world’s second largest economy. Yet, China and other countries that have significantly improved their economies over the past few decades carry no obligations under the UNFCCC. Thus, the G7, an informal forum of the world’s leading economies, are calling on China, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and others to contribute to climate financing. But both sides are far apart: After the most recent round of talks in late August failed to reach agreement the UN published a document suggesting seven options. While developed nations claim that tight fiscal spaces make huge increases in public funding unrealistic, vulnerable and developing countries want to go far beyond the current US$100 billion-goal. One option, reflecting the Arab countries’ position, sets out a target for developed countries to provide US$441 billion each year in grants, combined with an aim to mobilize a total of US$1 trillion in funding from all sources, for the period 2025-2029. Meanwhile, the EU is pushing for a global climate- funding target of more than US$1 trillion
While Babayev called on all parties “to strive for the highest possible ambition,” he also stated clearly: “Our top negotiating priority is agreeing a fair and ambitious New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance (NCQG) adequate to the urgency and scale of the problem, taking into account the needs and priorities of developing country parties.” The NCQG was introduced in 2009 when developed countries agreed to collectively mobilize US$100 billion annually by 2020 for climate action in developing countries. The goal was finally met in 2022, when US$115.9 billion were raised. A new NCQG is to be agreed at COP29 and negotiators not only
a priority for Azerbaijan for the decades ahead,” says Mukhtar Babayev, Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources and President-Designate of the world’s largest and
have to increase the total amount of climate finance by a large margin, but also specify the timeframe and terms of its provision, what the finance will support,
most important climate change conference. His ambition is to use the
Mukhtar Babayev, Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources and President-Designate of COP29
event as a springboard to “demonstrate how the country turned the economy to the green direction.” In a letter to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Minister Babayev set out his presidency’s priorities and work plan based on the two pillars of “enhancing ambition” and “enabling action” in order to turn the vision “In Solidarity for a Green World” into reality.
how it will reach the communities that need it most and how climate finance will be measured. First rounds of negotiations showed the parties far apart. The Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance says that emerging markets and developing countries, excluding China, need to invest up to US$2.4 trillion a year by 2030 to meet climate and nature goals. But estimates vary widely: The
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