COMPREHENSIVE INNOVATION FOOD SECURITY
INNOVATING FOR RESILIENT AGRICULTURE ACROSS AFRICA
Agricultural resilience is not an end in itself, but a means to achieving food security and sustainable livelihoods By Phumzile Ncube, Senior Researcher, University of Johannesburg
B eyond the fundamentals of food security, agriculture remains central to many African economies, providing employment and income for large segments of the population. Agriculture contributes around 50 percent of employment and almost 30 percent of GDP across Africa, according to World Bank estimates.
Perhaps more striking is that, despite increased urbanization, more than half the population still lives in rural areas and that agriculture remains “the source of livelihood for 70 percent of people,” according to the African Union. The sector is, however, fraught with significant challenges. Low productivity, poor infrastructure and widespread informality mean that most agricultural ventures are fundamentally precarious – and becoming more so in the context of climate change. Unpredictable weather patterns such as erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts, juxtaposed with extreme weather events such as floods are placing growing pressure on farming systems, particularly for small-scale farmers already operating under fragile conditions. In 2024, southern African countries faced a severe drought, resulting in harvest failures and livestock deaths in countries such as Zambia and Malawi. The drought was later followed by floods in many parts of the region, which not only affected agricultural output, but also displaced thousands of people. Floods battered the continent that year, submerging half a million hectares of cropland in Nigeria alone. Infrastructure damage also affects access to markets, fertilizers and other inputs – and again, climate change is set to have long-term impacts. Research estimates that in some parts of Africa, yields of cereal crops such as maize and millet, two important staples and sources
of income, will decrease by an average of 6 percent by 2050 and up to 24 percent by 2090 due to heat stress and drought. 1 There has never been a more crucial time to build resilience in African agriculture – to improve the ability of farmers and other agricultural players to absorb external shocks.
Yields of maize and millet –
two African staples – may decrease by up to 24 percent by 2090.
Phumzile Ncube
Phumzile Ncube is Senior Researcher at the DSI/NRF
South African Research Chair in Industrial Development, University of Johannesburg. She holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Johannesburg. Her research focuses on agro-industrial development, global and regional value chains, with a specific focus on the southern African region. She has engaged in academic and policy-related research with institutions such as UNU-WIDER, UNIDO and ERSA.
Photos: Pic_It/Adobestock; Nantu/Adobestock
1 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1161030124000583?via%3Dihub
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