ANNEX
RESULTS ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS
METHODOLOGY The results data analysis was conducted through a compre- hensive desk review of approval, supervision and comple- tion documents available in OPEC Fund repositories, as well as on public websites of co-financiers for projects completed since 2018. The results presented in this report are based on data reported by OPEC Fund borrowers and, where applicable, co-financiers (specifically for completion reports produced and made available by them). Drawing from this document review, a detailed project results data- base was developed, building on the foundation estab- lished in previous years. DATA AVAILABILITY AND QUALITY Of the 206 public and private sector non-trade projects reviewed, the OPEC Fund was able to locate documented results data for 149 (72 percent of all reviewed) projects. Data about target and actual results values were found for 111 (54 percent of projects). In cases where targets and results were available, overall average target achievement was 127 percent (after removing four outliers achieving above 100 percent), with 66 projects (59 percent of all projects with target and actual values) achieving more than 100 percent of their targets on average. It is difficult to infer overall target achievement rates because of the limited number of projects for which this comparison was possible (only 95 of 158 public sector projects, only 20 of 48 private sector projects). When available, target values were gathered, along with actual results data, from comple- tion or supervision reports to reflect the fact that project
targets are sometimes updated during a project’s life as they evolve during implementation. Where targets were not available from completion or supervision reports, the analysis used the targets set out in approval documents. Projects without target results data include public sector projects for which the logical framework was too impre- cise to extract target values, and private sector projects for which it was not possible to infer results expectations from the narrative (in the past, private sector projects had not consistently included a table with quantitative develop- ment results projections). RESULTS SCOPE In line with practices of other multilateral development banks, results reported are typically those of the supported projects and not just of the OPEC Fund’s contribution, as selecting the results of OPEC Fund contributions only was in most cases not feasible based on the available data and/or due to the projects’ nature. However, when OPEC Fund financing was focused on specific components that produced results clearly distinct from those of the rest of the project, only the results of OPEC Fund-financed components were considered. Similarly, whenever the amount of the provided financing was directly proportional (such as for cash transfers) to the results achieved, only the proportionally attributable results were considered. Over the coming years, the OPEC Fund will assess to what extent identifying contribution-specific results is feasible and advisable, either based on contribution-specific reporting or the application of an attribution factor.
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